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Daily Briefing, Tuesday March 04, 2008
Duration: 4:15Source: YouTube
IntroHello. I'm Bernard Hickey with the daily briefing from interest.co.nz...Today, we'll look at the government's decision to ban foreign investment in strategic assets on sensitive land, and what that might mean for interest rates over the long term,We'll check out the latest survey on customer satisfaction for the banks and find out who are the winners and losers,And we'll update you on some astonishing numbers on just how much money is flooding into New Zealand from Belgian dentists and Japanese housewives.Auckland AirportBut firstly, we look at the government's announcement that it will ban foreign investment in so-called strategic assets on so-called sensitive land.This rule was specifically created last night in an awful hurry to block the sale of Auckland airport to the Canadian Pension Fund.Essentially, the government has changed the fundamental rules of the game right near the final whistle. Foreign investors will look at this sort of government policy making and shudder.This will discourage many foreign investors and opens up a pandora's box for this and future governments. Just what is a strategic asset? What is sensitive land?Should we block any sale of Fletcher Building because it builds most public and private infrastructure? Should we buy back Contact and its key power stations?Is land in high country south island sensitive and strategic. Do we like the look of Shania Twain and is she a threat to our national infrastructure.So what would happen if foreign investors are rightly turned off by this big closed sign on our front door. We currently have a current account deficit of around 8% of GDP. That means we have to borrow more than NZ$15 billion a year just to keep spending the way we do. We depend on foreign investor confidence to keep spending. Without that foreign investor confidence they will demand a higher interest rate.If we lose that confidence, that will over the long term increase our wholesale interest rates and therefore our mortgage rates, because they are funded directly from those wholesale markets, as we've found out in recent weeks.Customer SatisfactionNow let's take a quick look at how the banks are doing with customer satisfaction.A Roy Morgan survey shows Westpac, The National Bank and BNZ improved their customer satisfaction ratings in the December quarter.Meanwhile ANZ and Kiwibank saw further satisfaction declines.The National Bank extended its lead as the major bank with the highest customer satisfaction rating. ANZ's satisfaction rating fell to 68.9%, but it remains above its level from a year ago.Westpac's rating rose in the quarter, but remains below its rating from a year ago.Interestingly, the average for the top 5 banks in the December quarter was 74.6%, up from 73.3% a year earlier. Another big mover was Kiwibank, which saw its rating fall to 78.9%. It is now down 5% from a year ago and the honeymoon seems to be waning with the government-owned bank as it moves into its seventh year.Carry tradeAnd finally we take a quick look at the latest tally of Uridashi and Eurokiwi bond issues. This matters because it is essentially a measure of how happy foreign investors are right now to invest in our high interest rates.Amazingly, in the middle of a credit crunch, the Japanese housewives and Belgian dentists bought NZ$2.97 billion worth of these Uridashi and Eurokiwi bonds. This is the biggest monthly total in two years and was well above the 1.52 billion dollars worth of maturing bonds.No wonder the Kiwi rose during the month and remains strong around 80 US cents.That carry trade is far from dead.I'm Bernard Hickey from interest.co.nz with the Daily Briefing. Catch you on Wednesday.
Rating: (0 ratings) Views: 19 Added: Mar 6, 2008
Category: News Author: ofInterestNZ
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