Video

With only two days left to go - March is on track to post the first monthly stock market rally since last October. And that is lending hope the winter of discontent is over and a spring rally is in the works. Traders say the turning point came mid-month, but not before sentiment reached panicked levels, according to Cutton and Company trader Bernie McSherry. SOUNDBITE: Bernie McSherry, trader, Cutton & Company (english) saying: "I've been down on this floor for 30 years. I've rarely seen that level of anxiety. And it was really anxiety about systemic risk, rather than recession or specific earnings. And the last time I can remember feeling that way is during the crash back in 1987. The idea that the system itself, the financial system, might fail." But the system did not fail. The Federal Reserve rescued Bear Stearns by brokering a sale to JPMorgan Chase, investment banks were allowed to borrow directly from the Fed for the first time since the Great Depression, and key interest rates were lowered - inspiring investor confidence and marking the beginnings of an upturn says Fred Dickson, chief investment strategist, at D.A.Davidson. SOUNDBITE: Fred Dickson, chief investment strategist, D.A. Davidson (english) saying: "Let's go back to the school yard. Usually the first bell is an early bell - signaling that something is going to be happening in 10 or 15 minutes. It's not going to be 10 or 15 minutes in stock market time, but it will be within a month or two. We should get the second bell as we work through first quarter earnings season that will be mid to late-April." But not everyone on Wall Street is convinced the worst is over for the economy or for the market. Barry Ritholtz is director of equity research at Fusion IQ. SOUNDBITE: Barry Ritholtz, director of equity research, FusionIQ (english) saying: "Is this a shallow recession that's done by the second half of the year? If it is - then back up the truck and buy here. I don't think so. I think between the financial problems, the housing problems and the real, real weakness of the U.S. consumer, I think this is going to be a much worse recession that we saw in 2001." And that may be the key to who wins this debate. If the expected recession is short and shallow, the bulls say they were RIGHT in calling the market bottom, especially if the January low point continues to hold. But if a recession is prolonged, the bears say history is on their side, and the market could fall another 15 percent. Conway Gittens, Reuters. COMPANIES MENTIONED: SYMBOLS: